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A baisic guide to RO economics By Melody


Melody
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Melody's guide to RO economics

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First I'd like to start by saying that this isn't another price list, this is a guide to understand how the prices of RO go up and down. I don't have a degree in economics, but I do understand how the basics of the RO economy work. I'll go over supply and demand, and what can and does threaten the intertwined fibrous structure of the RO market.

Supply and Demand

This might seem like a self explanatory topic, but it's much more complex than skin beauty. Obviously supply is the amount of something that a merchant would be selling. For example there's a much higher supply of Hydra cards than there is Gold Dragon Helms. This is mainly because the golden dragon helm is harder to obtain. Thus when there is less supply there is more demand, however this is not always the case.

Demand is the need for the item/product. For example there is a much higher demand for a Tao card than there is for Mr. Smile masks. However when you do have someone looking for a Mr. Smile mask, you'll never see one in the black market simply because there is relatively no demand for it.

How does this have an effect on the prices in RO? Simply put, when there is an incredible demand for something, but very little supply, such as a Thanatos card, the price increases dramatically because Merchants can get more money if they have one of the few.

So giving an example of a Valkyrie Manteau, we see that only one monster drops this item, and that the monster doesn't spawn very frequently. This places a huge damper on the supply that can possibly be obtained. Making the Vmant harder and more expensive to get.

However with RO economics the usefulness of the item also constitutes the demand for it. For example the Maya Helm can only be obtained by killing the Maya MVP. So you would think that this item would be incredibly expensive (you may think it already is, but actually it could be a lot worse) however because it only grants the wearer limited abilities comparatively to a donation Valkyrie helm, it will therefore be much cheaper. But if the Maya helm granted the user much better abilities, it would outweigh the Valkyrie Helm and become more expensive than it.

But with this fluctuating balance of supply and demand surely nothing could cause any detrimental effects to it right? Wrong.

Instability and crashes in the market.

While the market is incredibly well balanced in it's current state, numerous factors could throw the market so out of kilter that you could see almost an economic recession (though with the absolute authority of the GMs these factors are greatly reduced.)

What could these factors be? It's simple. Think about supply and demand. Let's go back to the example of the Valkyrie manteau, if suddenly instead of porings Vrand spawned everywhere the price of Vmant, Varmor and Vshoes would drop incredibly. I estimate it would fall from 300mil to around 60mil simply because of it's usefulness. Since the GMs prevent this by ignoring all suggestions of MVP rooms, or Altering the MVPs stats, there is little we have to worry about.

What about a factor that the players could control? Well if you bring way to much supply into the market, you eliminate all demand for the product. Say for example that 60% of the people on gathering donated and got a Valk helm and a Sleiph. Right now in the market a Valk helm goes for a good 3.4bil or so (from what I've seen) But imagine if it was so easy to obtain one because everyone had one? That would again drive the price down incredibly, but still not as far as only a few zenny, because of it's usefulness.

Another prime example of what could cause a market crash/recession is merchant feeling. If the merchants decided to sell MVP cards for 1 zenny, then everyone would be buying them. Which would cause an incredible increase in demand, which would lead to not enough supply, in turn raising the price once more.

Conclusion

In conclusion it becomes apparent how the economy of RO can be stable if all the right parts are played. For the reasons above, the GMs place barriers to keep the economy from crashing. Such as no altercations of official items (Say taking GTB out of the game. That makes GTB worthless and may people are out of the money they spent on one) or official monsters (think of the Vrand example). By placing these barriers in, gathering has a stable market system, that allows for a bit of a challenge (saving up for something really expensive), which actually makes it more entertaining than servers which sell every item and card in the mall (which also makes merchant classes near useless). So the next time you think about donating and getting 12 of the same card to sell it off for a huge profit, realize that once people know that there is so much supply they will demand a lower price on it.

Comments, questions, anything else greatly appreciated~

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stable?

gro economy is far from stable right now, with prices flying all over the place.

you've done a good job outlining common sense about supply and demand in ur guide, i give u that credit

now lets analyze.

in the past months, theres has been a general increase in the size of GRO.

This increase leads to more donators.

Coupled with some select few who donate alot

this has led to, in the past weeks, a general flood of donate items, which has lowered the useful donate item costs (ex, tao was 3.5b a few months ago, now 2.9b; VH was 4.5b a few months ago, now 3.6b or so), as well as flattened them out (for example, now all mvp cards are in the 2.8-3b range or less, most of them being in the 2.8-3b)

these new donators (or ppl who happened to donate alot) are now rich from selling all their donate stuff, and they want the items that they cannot get by donating, as in mainly event hdgrs.

this of course has recently driven event hdgr prices up (ex. pcb was 6-7b a few months ago, now 10-12b).

however, as these donators get the event hdgrs they want, they will soon have nothing better to do that just chat with their friends or pvp/woe, i would predict that there would be a decrease in donations, and once agian, kafra donate shop items may begin to rise in prices again (maybe)

in the far future, if these rich ppl get bored of GRO, they may end up selling their collection of rare event hdgrs and lower the prices

however theres always factors no one knows about >:3

economics is all just educated guess, and this is mine

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Excellent work. Being an Econs student I totally understand that.

Might wanna add some graphs if you can :P ( Supply/Demand and whatnot )

Other than that, two thumbs up.

^^ That's a good idea, now if I could only get an older member to help me make a graph of how prices increased/decreased for some common/rare items....

Also I'm going to spruce it up a bit, just give me a little bit of time XD

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  • 2 weeks later...

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